31 SPECIAL REPORT NUMBER OF LISTINGS BY STATUS FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS Active Sold the stock market. Sales between $1 million and $2 million were the lowest we have seen in February since 2011. Demand – Under Contract We can anticipate future sales by looking at homes under contract. The number of listings under contract was 595 as of March 1, which is up an impressive 14% from the 522 of March 1, 2016. However, once again it is the lower end of the luxury range that is doing all the heavy lifting. Homes between $500,000 and $800,000 have a 28% gain in listings under contract, but above $800,000 there is a 3% decline. For homes over $3 million there was even a 33% decline. Normal sales comprise 96% of luxury homes in escrow, up from 94% a year ago. Sales Pricing Due to relatively low volumes and a wide range of price points, the Northeast Valley luxury market can display a lot of volatility if measured on a monthly basis. We therefore prefer to measure over a longer period in order to identify trends more accurately. Since the market low of $219 in 1Q 2012 we have seen the 12 month average move upwards to around $267 per sq. ft. which is an increase of 22%. However luxury home pricing peaked in August 2015 and had been in a bit of a slump until last fall. However pricing has strengthened since October and we are seeing some year over year increases. The 12 month average pricing is $2 higher than a year ago in February 2016. The six month moving average stands at $272, up from $265 in February 2016. However the 3 month average stands at $273, which is down $5 from February 2016. Under Contract Pricing The pricing for homes under contract was at a low point of $165 per sq. ft. in September 2011. Up to the end of March 2014 it was advancing and reached a peak of $257. Between March 2014 and March 2017 it has made no consistent moves in either direction and as of March 1, 2017, the average still stands at $251, $1 lower than last year. This suggests that sales prices will continue to move sideways in the near future. If the sales mix continues to favor the lower priced homes, as it did in February, then we could see a slight fall in the average price per sq. ft. The average under contract price for normal listings is $255 per sq. ft. The average for (the very few) lender owned homes is $252 per sq. ft and short sales average $170 per sq. ft. Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Paradise Valley Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Sept-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Arcadia 150 100 50 0 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 130 110 90 70 50 30 10 Biltmore Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Sept-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Scottsdale 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Sept-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 400 300 200 100 0 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 May-16 Jun -16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Sept-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17
Danley Portfolio - Spring 2017
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